Galaxy Research Odds Trajectory (2026)
Published 6/29/2026, 4:40:03 PM
Galaxy Research has significantly downgraded the passage odds for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) to 50% as of late June 2026, a sharp decline from 75% in May [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-june-2026]. This reduction suggests that comprehensive US crypto market structure regulation is likely delayed until 2027 or beyond, with Senator Cynthia Lummis warning that failure to pass the bill this year could push a final resolution as far out as 2030 [Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/senator-cynthia-lummis-says-clarity-175857027.html].
Galaxy Research Odds Trajectory (2026)
The downgrade is attributed to a tightening Senate calendar and a lack of a scheduled floor date rather than a rejection of the bill's core substance.
| Date | Galaxy Research Odds | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 75% | Momentum following 15-9 Senate Banking Committee approval |
| June 9, 2026 | 60% | Senate calendar tightening; competing legislative priorities [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-senate-calendar-tightens] |
| June 26, 2026 | 50% | Lack of floor date (Item No. 423); July recess deadline approaching [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-june-2026] |
Factors Delaying US Crypto Regulation
The delay in the CLARITY Act's passage stems from several legislative and industry-specific hurdles:
- Legislative Bottleneck: The Senate is currently prioritized with "must-pass" items, including the FY2027 NDAA and FISA Section 702 reauthorization. Without a floor commitment by early July, the window for a 2026 vote is expected to close [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-june-2026].
- Industry Fracturing: A major dispute over the "GENIUS Act" extension, which would prohibit stablecoin interest on third-party platforms, led Coinbase to withdraw its support in January 2026 [Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2026/01/14/coinbase-pulls-support-night-before-senate-markup-of-market-structure/].
- Substantive Deadlocks: Disagreements persist over enforceable ethics standards and stricter "BRCA" developer protection language regarding illicit finance [Source: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/06/03/clarity-act-limbo-stablecoin-dispute].
Impact of the Delay
The reduced odds for the CLARITY Act have immediate implications for the US regulatory landscape:
- Continued Jurisdictional Conflict: In the absence of statutory clarity, the SEC and CFTC will likely continue their "regulation by enforcement" approach.
- Institutional Caution: Galaxy Asset Management notes that while the "Great Convergence" of crypto and traditional finance continues, institutional capital remains cautious without the "Mature Blockchain Test" provided by the bill to define token oversight [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-june-2026].
- DeFi Vulnerability: Non-custodial developers remain at risk of being classified as regulated financial intermediaries without the safe harbors proposed in the Act.
Prediction markets currently reflect even higher skepticism than Galaxy Research, with Polymarket pricing the bill's passage at approximately 42-47% [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-june-2026].
In summary, Galaxy Research's reduced odds signal a significant delay in US crypto regulation, likely pushing comprehensive market structure laws into 2027 or later, as the legislative window for 2026 rapidly closes.