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Is the Current Bitcoin Bull Market Ending? An

Published 7/26/2025, 8:39:57 AM

To assess whether the current Bitcoin bull market is nearing its end, I have analyzed historical bull market cycles and compared the current state of several key on-chain and technical indicators with their values at previous market tops (2013, 2017, and 2021).

Historical Bitcoin Bull Market Cycles and Peaks

Bitcoin's history is characterized by distinct bull and bear market cycles, often influenced by its halving events. Major bull market peaks occurred around:

2013: Bitcoin reached a peak of over $1,100 by November/December.
2017: Bitcoin peaked near $20,000 by December.
2021: Bitcoin saw a double peak, reaching over $64,000 in April and another peak in November.

Key Predictive Indicators and Their Historical Performance

Several indicators have shown a historical correlation with Bitcoin bull market tops:

1. Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Description: This indicator triggers a signal when the 111-day Moving Average (DMA) crosses above the 350-day DMA multiplied by two. It has historically pinpointed market tops with high accuracy.
Historical Performance at Peaks:
- 2013: Triggered signals very close to both the April and December peaks.
- 2017: Triggered one day before the December peak.
- 2021: Triggered two days before the April peak (it did not signal the November peak).
Current Status (as of July 13, 2025): The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has not yet triggered a sell signal. This suggests that based purely on this indicator, the bull market is not at its end.

2. MVRV Z-score

Description: This on-chain metric compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value (the average price at which all coins last moved). High values (typically above 7) suggest extreme overvaluation and historical market tops.
Historical Performance at Peaks:
- 2013, 2017, 2021: The MVRV Z-score consistently surged into the red overvaluation zone (values around 7-9) at these market tops.
Current Status (as of June 30, 2025): The MVRV Z-score is currently between 1.5 and 2.0. This is significantly below the historical peak levels, indicating that the market is not yet in an extreme overvaluation phase based on this metric.

3. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Description: A momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Readings above 70 typically indicate overbought conditions.
Historical Performance at Peaks (Weekly RSI):
- 2013: Reached extreme levels near 95 and remained above 70 for 3-4 months.
- 2017: Stayed elevated for approximately 6 months.
- 2021: Reached levels near 90 and remained elevated for 5-6 months.
Current Status (as of July 25, 2025): The RSI is currently around 75 and is projected to remain above 80 for several months. While high, it has not yet reached the sustained extreme levels observed at previous market tops. A daily bearish divergence is noted, which requires monitoring but is not a definitive top signal on its own.

4. Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply

Description: Represents the amount of Bitcoin held by addresses for more than 155 days, often seen as strong conviction holders. Historically, LTHs tend to distribute (sell) some of their holdings into strength during bull market tops.
Historical Performance at Peaks:
- 2017-2018 bull run: LTH supply decreased from 10.5 million to 8.5 million BTC as holders took profits.
- 2020-2021 cycle: LTHs reduced their positions during the bull run.
Current Status (as of July 21, 2025): The LTH supply is nearing 75% of the total circulating supply, reaching a record high. This is a significant deviation from historical patterns, suggesting that long-term holders are showing exceptionally strong conviction and are not yet distributing their holdings. This could indicate a more mature market with sustained interest or a prolonged bull market.

Assessment of the Current Bull Market

Based on the current state of these key indicators, there is no strong, definitive signal that the current Bitcoin bull market is ending imminently.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has not triggered, leaving room for further price appreciation.
The MVRV Z-score is well below historical overvaluation levels, suggesting that the market is not yet overheated to the extent seen at past tops.
The RSI indicates a strong bullish trend but has not yet reached the extreme, prolonged overbought conditions characteristic of previous cycle peaks.
The Long-Term Holder Supply presents a unique scenario, with LTHs maintaining record high conviction rather than distributing, which could suggest a prolonged bull phase or a new market dynamic.

While market dynamics can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results, the collective evidence from these indicators currently points towards the potential for continued upside in the Bitcoin market. Close monitoring of these and other on-chain metrics, as well as broader macroeconomic factors, remains crucial for identifying any shifts in market sentiment or structure.