30-Day Correlation: Equities vs. DXY
Published 3/21/2026, 9:36:26 AM
Bitcoin is currently highly correlated with equities, trading as a risk asset alongside the Nasdaq rather than acting as a decoupled "digital gold." While its historical inverse relationship with the US Dollar (DXY) has temporarily broken, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to broader market sentiment. Upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly inflation prints and interest rate decisions, are expected to drive volatility across both crypto and traditional stock markets.
30-Day Correlation: Equities vs. DXY
Right now, Bitcoin is moving together with major stock indices and is not decoupling. A correlation above 0.60 is considered strong, indicating that institutions are treating Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset. Conversely, the historical inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken, with the two assets currently moving independently of one another.
| Asset Pair | 30-Day Pearson Correlation | Current Relationship |
|---|---|---|
| BTC vs. QQQ (Nasdaq) | 0.63 | Strong positive correlation |
| BTC vs. SPY (S&P 500) | 0.60 | Strong positive correlation |
| BTC vs. DXY (US Dollar) | -0.027 | No correlation (relationship broken) |
| (Data Source: 30-Day Rolling Pearson Correlation) |
BTC Performance on SPY Drop Days
The S&P 500 (SPY) has been relatively stable and has not experienced a daily drop greater than 2% in the last 60 days. However, looking at the worst days for the stock market this month (drops greater than 1.5%), Bitcoin's reaction has been mixed but generally leans toward following equities downward during risk-off events.
| Date | SPY Return | BTC Return | Observation |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 12, 2026 | -1.54% | -1.15% | BTC dumped alongside SPY |
| March 12, 2026 | -1.52% | +0.41% | BTC showed brief localized resilience |
| (Data Source: Daily Price Returns) |
While March 12 showed a brief moment of resilience, the broader 30-day trend confirms that Bitcoin generally follows the Nasdaq down when risk-off sentiment hits the market.
Upcoming Macro Events
Because Bitcoin is trading as a risk asset, it remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data that dictates market liquidity. The following major events in the next 30 days could move both crypto and equity markets:
- April 10, 2026 (8:30 AM ET): Release of the March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) [Note: not independently confirmed]. Hotter-than-expected inflation data typically triggers sell-offs in both QQQ and BTC [Source: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm].
- April 28-29, 2026: The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and interest rate decision [Note: not independently confirmed]. Market participants will likely use the April 10 CPI print to price in expectations for this rate decision [Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm].
Verdict
Crypto is firmly correlated to stocks right now and has not achieved independence; however, whether it can hold its ground during a sustained, multi-month equity bleed remains an open question.