Samsung's 2028 Shortage Forecast
Published 8/2/2026, 12:14:28 PM
Samsung's forecast of a structural semiconductor shortage extending through 2028 is expected to significantly constrain the availability and increase the cost of cryptocurrency mining equipment. As Samsung and other major foundries like TSMC prioritize high-margin AI-focused High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for data center giants, mining ASIC manufacturers are being pushed to the periphery of the supply chain, leading to projected price increases of 20–30% for hardware through 2028 [Source: https://www.technology.org/2026/07/30/samsung-chip-shortage-2028/].
Samsung's 2028 Shortage Forecast
Samsung Electronics confirmed in July 2026 that the supply-demand imbalance for advanced chips is worsening. The company has shifted its business model to favor long-term stability with AI firms, leaving less room for the cyclical crypto mining sector.
- Capacity Lock-in: Samsung has secured 60–70% of its total production capacity through five-year supply agreements with the top five global data center firms, including NVIDIA and AMD [Source: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/samsung-secures-long-term-deals-ai-chips].
- Peak Shortage: The shortage is projected to be more acute in 2027 than in 2026, with no significant relief expected until at least 2028 [Source: https://www.technology.org/2026/07/30/samsung-chip-shortage-2028/].
- Node Delays: Samsung has officially delayed its 1.4nm (SF1.4) mass production roadmap from 2027 to 2029, effectively stalling the next major leap in mining efficiency for several years [Source: https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-foundry-roadmap-1-4nm-delayed-2029/].
Impact on Mining Equipment Availability
The shortage impacts the mining industry through restricted foundry access for ASIC chips and a scarcity of supporting components like DRAM.
| Metric | Impact Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ASIC Capacity | ~2,000 wafers/month (10% of 2nm capacity) allocated to crypto. | Source |
| Pricing Trend | Projected 20–30% increase in rig prices through 2028. | Source |
| Lead Times | Expected to extend as AI contracts take priority. | Source |
| Tech Roadmap | 1.4nm efficiency gains delayed until 2029. | Source |
Manufacturer Specifics and Constraints
- Samsung Partners: Manufacturers like MicroBT and Canaan have secured early access to Samsung’s 2nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) process, with approximately 2,000 wafers per month dedicated to crypto mining [Source: https://www.theelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=20260701]. While this provides a technological edge, the volume is small compared to total market demand.
- TSMC Competition: Bitmain, which primarily utilizes TSMC, faces intense competition for 2nm capacity from Apple and NVIDIA. While TSMC is expanding capacity through 2028, the high demand from the AI sector suggests Bitmain may face similar production bottlenecks [Note: not independently confirmed; some sources suggest Bitmain remains a primary TSMC customer].
- Component Scarcity: Beyond the primary ASIC chips, the shift of DRAM and NAND production toward AI-centric HBM is expected to create a shortage of the commodity memory modules required to assemble complete mining rigs.
Market Outlook (2026–2028)
The mining hardware market is entering a period of high volatility. Smaller mining operations relying on spot market purchases are expected to face the highest price premiums, as manufacturers prioritize large-scale institutional buyers with long-term contracts. Relief is not anticipated until new fabrication plants in Texas and South Korea come online toward the end of the decade.