Galaxy's Odds Revision Timeline
Published 6/29/2026, 2:08:44 PM
Galaxy Digital Research, led by Head of Research Alex Thorn, has slashed the passage odds for the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act) to 50% as of June 26, 2026. This revision marks a significant decline from the 75% peak odds following the bill's bipartisan 15-9 Senate Banking Committee approval in May.
The "tightening" refers primarily to a contraction of the Senate legislative calendar and the hardening of procedural requirements rather than a loss of substantive support for the bill's contents.
Galaxy's Odds Revision Timeline
| Date | Odds | Change | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 75% | +20% | Post-markup optimism; strong 15-9 bipartisan committee vote. |
| June 5, 2026 | 60% | -15% | Floor time lost to FISA and funding debates. |
| June 26, 2026 | 50% | -10% | Calendar deterioration; no merged text or floor commitment. |
Key Reasons for the Downgrade
The reduction to 50% is driven by several "tightening" dynamics in the Senate:
- Calendar Compression: The Senate is adjourned until July 13, leaving only approximately 15–20 usable floor days before the August recess. Galaxy notes that the "absence of news is itself the news," as the lack of a scheduled floor vote by late June signals a deprioritization by leadership [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-revision-june-2026/].
- Competing Legislative Priorities: Floor time has been consumed by "must-pass" items, including the failed FISA Section 702 reauthorization and the SAVE Act. These items have pushed the CLARITY Act (Calendar No. 423) further down the queue [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-revision-june-2026/].
- The 60-Vote Threshold: To reach the 60-vote cloture threshold, leadership requires at least 9 Democratic crossovers (assuming GOP Senators Hawley and Paul vote no). These votes are currently stalled over unresolved ethics provisions demanded by Senators Gallego and Booker [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-revision-june-2026/].
- Banking Industry Opposition: Groups representing roughly 4,000 community banks are actively campaigning against stablecoin yield provisions. The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) claims these provisions could drain $1.3 trillion in deposits from traditional banks [Source: https://www.icba.org/w/icba-analysis-permitting-interest-on-stablecoins].
Comparative Market Sentiment
Galaxy’s 50% estimate is now largely in line with broader market skepticism, though it remains more optimistic than some institutional peers:
- Polymarket: ~54% (down from 65% in early June).
- JPMorgan: <50% (citing similar calendar concerns).
- Bitwise: 5–30% (citing "DC insider" skepticism).
Galaxy identifies that a public commitment from Majority Leader Thune for a mid-July vote or the release of a unified Banking-Agriculture committee text would be required to push odds back above 60% [Source: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/clarity-act-odds-revision-june-2026/].
Note: While the reduction from 75% to 60% on June 5 is widely documented, the further reduction to 50% on June 26 is based on Galaxy's most recent internal research projections [Note: not independently confirmed].